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July Lean Hogs opened lower and kept on going to the session low at 107.725. Price turned higher and rallied the rest of the session to the high at 109.525. It settled near the high at 109.475. July Hogs held up as the cattle markets broke down on Friday as Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran attacked Israeli cities. The early breakdown took price to support at 107.925, with the low just below it. The rally took price back to the highs of the week with price just below the week’s high at 109.625. The weekly high remains below resistance at 109.85and price is forming a ledge at the highs. The short-term moving averages are moving higher, indicating a short-term uptrend in place. Cash fundamentals continue to impress as prices are moving higher in both the cutout and cash prices. Exports are holding their own in the era of high tariffs so that is encouraging. But it seems the US consumer is eating more pork leading to the increase in the cutout price. With beef cutouts surging, we may see continued strength in pork as consumers add pork to their eating habits. We’ll see!... If Hogs can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 109.85. Resistance then comes in at 111.675. A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 107.925. Support then comes in at 106.85.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 111.98 as of 06/12/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 101.75 as of 06/11/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Friday is 447,000, which is above last week’s 436,000 and below last year’s 447,733. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 20,000, which is above last week’s 16,000 and below last year’s 49,143. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 2,387,000, which is above last week’s 2,355,000 and last year’s 2,382,352.

August Feeder Cattle opened lower at the high of the day(310.325) and crashed. It traded to the session low at 305.80 and then consolidated the rest of the session to settle near the low at 306.425. The breakdown took price down to the 13-DMA (305.70) with the low just above it. The feeder breakdown followed the Live cattle futures lower as outside market turmoil helped pressure the cattle markets. With funds long positions at lofty levels, the risk off mentality led to some lightening of long positions. The cash market continues to reach new peaks as the index made another new all-time high price at 317.10. Futures are now at a discount to the index after trading at a premium earlier. The 13-DMA will key trade at the start of the week on Monday. We’ll see!... A breakdown from the 13-DMA could see price test support at 304.325. Support then comes in at 301.90. If settlement holds, price could test resistance at 306.90. Resistance then comes in at 307.675. 

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 317.10 as of 06/12/2025. 

August Live Cattle gap opened lower, ticked to the high at 216.525 and then broke down the rest of the session to the low at 212.25. Settlement was near the low at 212.45. The risk off mentality was strong in the cattle market taking price down to support at the 21-DMA now at 212.05. The selloff in the futures did little to effect the cash market as cash maintained its price levels. Cash traded from 235.00 to 242.00 on Friday. Cutouts were also strong, making another new high for the year and all-time highs except for the pandemic, (see below). The packer cutback big on slaughter with probably the lowest slaughter level for this time of year, helping drive up the cutout. We also saw a raid on a packing plant from Ice that took workers out of the picture. The President addressed this issue and said he will come up with a solution to keep hard working immigrants at their jobs. The gap is from the June 12^th low at 216.725 and the Friday high. We’ll see!... If price trades below the 21-DMA it could test support at 210.975. A failure from here could see a test of support at 208.80. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance at 214.325. Resistance then comes in at 215.60.

Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 1.16 to 377.88 and select increased 0.43 to 363.50. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 14.38 and the load count was 80.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 100,000, which is below last week’s 103,000 and last year’s 119,209. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 2,000, which is even with last week and below last year’s 6,905. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 558,000, which is below last week’s 582,000 and last year’s 615,083.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states:  So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been moderate on moderate demand in Nebraska with live purchases steady to 2.00 lower from 240.00-242.00, compared to last week. Dressed purchases have been steady at 380 compared to Thursday. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in all other feeding regions, although not enough for an adequate market test. The latest established market in the Texas Panhandle was Wednesday at 235.00. The latest market test in Kansas was Thursday with live purchases from 233.00-238.00, mostly 235.00. The latest established market in the Western Cornbelt was Thursday, with live purchases from 240.00-241.00 and dressed purchases at 380.00. 

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 232.00 – 244.00 and from 370.00 – 383.00 on a dressed basis (so far).

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

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