“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​8/19/2025

Live Cattle:

For the moment, today's price action of feeder cattle suggests competition for inventory is believed favored over contraction of production capacity.  Competition for fat cattle appears to vary as packers, grocers, and restaurants will ponder significantly on the consumers willingness to pay.  Nonetheless, cattle feeders have widen the spread further between starting feeder and finished fat, increasing the need for cheaper feed stuffs and or higher fat cattle prices.  Due to the recent revisions of jobless claims and unemployment reports, this brief comment from the Kobeissi Letter has my undivided attention.  

Feeder Cattle:

Backgrounders benefited greatly from cattle feeders attempts to compete, over contraction of production capabilities.  The advantage of northern cattle feeders over southern is distinct, with two factors causing cattle to move higher.  Those being, the closure of the southern border and premium fats obtain in the north over south.  Futures traders continue to offer backgrounders premium to market into January with a significantly tighter positive basis to the spring months of '26.  Whether the top, or miles from, your ability to manage risk at even with cash, premium, or only a slight discount has never been better, until maybe tomorrow.  Every recommendation to market or hedge so far, by anyone,  has been at a lesser price than could have been achieved.  This is believed complicating decisions under the guise of "I am more afraid of missing out, than of losing".  If you need help securing the highest price available to market into, after having paid the highest price for incoming inventory, we can help.  

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​Corn:

All were softer.  I recommend buying November of '26 soybeans at $10.58 with a sell stop to exit only at $10.35.  This is a sales solicitation.  ​​

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Energy:​

Crude and gasoline were lower with diesel fuel attempting to stay plus on the day.  I anticipate all to be weaker going forward.  

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Bonds:

Bonds were higher after having visited the middle of the triangle from which it broke out of to the top side earlier in the month.  I anticipate bonds to move higher and especially if the comments about a larger revision in employment have any truth to them.  If bonds move higher and energy lower, the economy may not be in nearly as good a shape as government reports suggest.  Recall, great division has been noted between Main Street and Wall Street.  ​​

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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